Brent prices jumped to $107.6 per barrel on September 10, 2026, amid escalation in the Middle East and an almost complete halt in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. However, the effect on the ruble, according to analysts, will only be felt by the end of September – beginning of October due to a delay in the receipt of export earnings.

One should not expect a sustained strengthening of the Russian currency: what matters to the market is not a one‑off spike in commodity prices, but the maintenance of high prices for one or two months.

Why the ruble does not react instantly

There is a time lag of one to three months between the rise in oil quotations and the inflow of foreign‑exchange earnings to the Russian market.

This was stated by Natalya Vashchyuk, senior analyst at the asset management firm Pervaya, as reported by Bankiros.

That is why the current Brent spike above $100 per barrel will support the ruble not immediately, but only by the end of September – beginning of October.

For a sustained strengthening of the Russian currency, a sharp rise in

However, the Bank of Russia remains cautious. On September 11, the Central Bank's Board of Directors kept the key rate at 14% after ten consecutive cuts, noting rising inflationary pressures. Annual inflation in August accelerated to 6.33% from 5.98% the previous month, although monthly dynamics remained deflationary (−0.08%).

What's happening with oil

On Thursday, September 10, Brent prices surged. At the close of trading, the November futures contract jumped 6.3% to reach $107.6. The previous similar spike occurred on July 29, when oil rose 7.32% in a single day.

The cause was another round of escalation in the Middle East. The agreement between the United States and Iran to halt attacks, signed in June, was not implemented, and hostilities resumed. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—a key artery of global oil trade—plummeted from 8–9 million barrels per day to less than 2 million.

On September 11, Brent quotes turned to correction: by 3 p.m. Moscow time they fell to $101 per barrel. The decline comes amid news that foreign ministers of Middle Eastern countries are seeking to reach a temporary agreement with Iran to regulate shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.