The latest study by iSeeCars answers the question of which car brands are most likely to reach a mileage of 250,000 miles (402,000 km). Unsurprisingly, Japanese brands lead the list, while some “European” marques ended up at the very bottom.

Thus, the odds for Toyota vehicles to surpass the quarter‑million‑mile mark are estimated at 19.7%, whereas for its sister brand Lexus the figure is 14.4%. Next come Honda (13.3%) and Acura (9.5%), with the top five rounded out by the American brand GMC (5.8%). Only these brands show a result above the market average, which stands at 5.4%.

In the middle group (5.3–2.5%) we find Mazda, Lincoln, RAM, Ford, Cadillac, Chevrolet, Nissan, Tesla, Subaru, Mercedes, Volvo, and Infiniti. All remaining brands have even lower figures. Bringing up the rear among the 33 brands surveyed are FIAT, Jaguar, Mini, and Maserati—the study’s authors rated the chances of their vehicles reaching 250,000 miles at 0%.

“Luxury status does not guarantee exceptional durability, although it’s important to remember how often, on average, a luxury car is used compared with mass‑market models. For example, the low likelihood of a Porsche breaking down reflects the lower intensity of use by Porsche owners rather than a measure of quality or longevity,” notes iSeeCars executive analyst Karl Brauer.

A question arises about the methodology of this study. The company itself claims to have analyzed data from more than 395 million vehicles. For each vehicle, the average annual mileage was calculated, and based on these averages a proprietary model was developed to estimate the probability that each vehicle would survive various mileage thresholds. Heavy‑duty vans and models with insufficient data were excluded from the analysis. To determine which brands produce the longest‑lasting vehicles, the odds of reaching the 250,000‑mile mark were calculated for each specific model and generation, then averaged across each brand’s lineup, weighting by the prevalence of each model on the road.