Author and Editor-in-Chief: Vitaliy Kisterny 07.11.2026 21:40:00

Forecasts for the dollar exchange rate in 2027 vary among experts, with some expecting 86-93 rubles and others predicting above 95. This is according to Bankiros.ru.

What is included in the official forecast

Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Evgeny Sumarokov refers to the updated forecast of socio-economic development for 2027-2029, published by the Ministry of Economic Development in September. The ministry predicts a gradual weakening of the nominal exchange rate from 79.5 rubles per dollar on average in 2026 to 87.4 rubles in 2027 according to the baseline scenario and to 89 rubles according to the conservative scenario. Based on these estimates, the ranges of fluctuations will be 85-89 and 87-91 rubles, respectively.

The main factor, according to Sumarokov, is the growth of global prices for energy carriers and other goods of Russian export. At the same time, the physical volumes of exports were constrained by the temporary shutdown of oil refining capacities, limitations of export infrastructure, and shipping.

Photo: Belnovosti / US dollars. Author Vitaliy Kisterny

The dynamics of global prices and the situation with foreign trade will determine the volumes and frequency of application of the budget rule by the Ministry of Finance. Within its framework, it will be able to purchase currency and perform a balancing function in the foreign exchange market, preventing excessive strengthening of the ruble, Sumarokov explained.

Sumarokov recalls that on October 23, 2026, the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of Russia kept the key interest rate at 14.00% per annum. According to the updated forecast of the regulator, the average rate will be 14.6% per annum in 2026 and 12.5-13.5% in 2027.

Forecast of 80-86 and 86-93 rubles

Director of the Center for Strategic Analysis of Ingosstrakh Evgenia Vasilieva believes that until the end of 2026, the dollar will be traded in the range of 80-86 rubles, and in 2027, mainly in the range of 86-93 rubles.

Currently, it seems like a suitable moment to buy dollars for savings and trips, Vasilieva noted.

She adds that the Ministry of Finance has already started buying currency since October 7, purchasing it on average for 12.7 billion rubles per day. The preservation of current prices for Russian oil, with a decrease in the cut-off price from 59 to 50 dollars in 2027, may increase the volume of currency purchases by the Ministry of Finance.

A reduction in the key rate to 10.5-12.5%, in her opinion, will make ruble deposits less attractive, but the impact on the exchange rate will be limited due to the lack of opportunity for Russian investors to buy foreign securities and for foreign investors to buy domestic ones. She considers events that could significantly strengthen the dollar to include the possible end of the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz and a potential decrease in Russian energy exports.

Forecast above 95 rubles

Dmitry Golubkov, Director of Macro-Economic Analysis at OTP Bank, believes that in 2027, the dollar exchange rate will rise above 95 rubles.

This is due to the fact that the ruble money supply in the Russian economy (M2 aggregate) has grown by more than 100% over the past five years, while the nominal exchange rates of the ruble against "hard currencies", including the US dollar, have hardly changed. This "ruble money overhang" will likely start to work in 2027 and weaken the ruble, Golubkov noted.

The strength of the ruble over the past two years, he explains, has been supported by high ruble interest rates and high oil and gas prices. Currently, the factor of interest rates is losing its significance: the annual growth rate of the M2 money supply in the first half of 2026 grew to around 13%, almost catching up with the key rate of 14%. If the Bank of Russia reduces the rate to 10.5-12.5% per annum in 2027, the likelihood of a large-scale flow of rubles into the foreign exchange market will increase significantly.

It is difficult to predict oil prices, but there is a certain probability of stabilization in the Persian Gulf in 2027 - all other things being equal, this would lower global oil prices. The chances of the ruble weakening and the dollar rising in 2027 exist, Golubkov summarized.