
The practical consequence of disinflation has been the reduction in the cost of credit resources. Even in May, the National Bank decided to lower the refinancing rate from 9.75% to 9.25% per annum starting June 1, 2026, and the overnight credit rate from 11.25% to 10.75% per annum. Thus, the current inflation level of 4.6% at a refinancing rate of 9.25% forms a spread of approximately 4.6 percentage points, which exceeds the optimal gap of 2-3 percentage points, as assessed by the regulator itself, and leaves room for further policy easing if the inflation trajectory remains stable. It is indicative that even in May, the annual increase in consumer prices was estimated at 5.4% in April, and trend inflation was at 5.1%, meaning that during the spring-summer period the disinflationary trend not only persisted but also deepened. In September, consumer prices rose by 0.5% compared to August, and from the beginning of the year by 3.6%, with the services sector making the main contribution to annual inflation – a rise of 9% by September last year – while food prices rose only by 2.8%, and non-food goods by 3.7%.