shklovinfo September 8, 2026 10:51 The growth of the Belarusian economy accelerated in January–July. This is stated in the macroeconomic review of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), reports BELTA.

“Economic growth accelerated in January–July amid expanding consumer and investment activity. The dynamics of industry and agriculture improved noticeably. Inflation remains steadily below the National Bank’s ceiling level. Against this backdrop, credit and deposit market rates are declining. The foreign trade position improved amid significant growth in services exports. In the absence of new shocks, Belarus’s economic growth may exceed our forecast and amount to more than 2% by the end of 2026,” the EDB noted. As reported, Belarus’s GDP target for 2026 is 2.8%.

Belarus’s economy grew by 2.1% in January–July 2026 (compared with the same period of 2025) after growth of 1.5% in January–June. Agriculture made a key contribution: early harvesting drove output growth of 12.9% in January–July after 4.7% in January–June. In industry, growth accelerated to 4.9% in July, and over January–July 2026 output recovered to the 2025 level. This dynamic was driven by the production of transport vehicles, pharmaceuticals, the chemical and food industries amid strengthening domestic demand.

The value added of the information and communication sector grew by 4.9%, contributing about 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth. Transport and logistics services increased by 4.2% after 4%, adding 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth. Construction recovered after the downturn caused by abnormally low temperatures in January–February 2026. The growth of contract works in the second quarter (plus 6.2%) made it possible to increase their volume by 2.3% over January–July.

Consumer demand remains high. Retail trade turnover grew by 8.1% in January–July after 7.6% in the first half of the year. A supporting factor for consumption is the growth of real disposable incomes (plus 8% in January–June), including due to higher wages and transfers. Lending provides additional support. The volume of consumer loans issued grew by 32% in the second quarter after a decline of 2.9% in the first quarter.

Investment activity has recovered: in the second quarter of 2026, investments grew by 10% after a decline of 2.7% in the first quarter. Over January–June 2026, growth reached 4.1%.

The unemployment rate stood at 2.1% in the second quarter of 2026, hitting a historic low. Real wages grew by 7.7% in January–July 2026, driven in part by a 10.6% increase in public-sector pay.

Inflation in Belarus was 4.4% year on year in July 2026, after 4.3% in June, remaining below the 7% ceiling set for 2026. Amid slowing price growth, the list of regulated product items was reduced in July. “Based on our estimates, inflation will remain below the National Bank’s ceiling in 2026 and will amount to about 5%,” EDB analysts forecast.

The National Bank cut its refinancing rate by 0.5 percentage points to 9.25% per annum as of June 1, 2026, and eased regulatory requirements for loans. This also provided support for investment lending.