Mogilev District – Pridneprovskaya Niva September 8, 2026 8:16 The growth of the Belarusian economy accelerated in January–July. This is stated in the macroeconomic review of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), BELTA reports.

“Economic growth accelerated in January–July amid expanding consumer and investment activity. The dynamics of industry and agriculture improved noticeably. Inflation remains steadily below the National Bank’s ceiling. Against this backdrop, lending and deposit rates are declining. The foreign trade position improved amid significant growth in service exports. In the absence of new shocks, Belarus’s economic growth may exceed our forecast and amount to more than 2% by the end of 2026,” the EDB noted. As reported, Belarus’s GDP target for 2026 is 2.8%.

Belarus’s economy grew by 2.1% in January–July 2026 (compared with the same period of 2025) after growth of 1.5% in January–June. Agriculture made a key contribution: early harvesting ensured output growth of 12.9% in January–July after 4.7% in January–June. In industry, growth accelerated to 4.9% in July, and for January–July 2026 output recovered to the 2025 level. This dynamic was driven by the production of transport vehicles, pharmaceuticals, the chemical and food industries amid stronger domestic demand.

Value added in the information and communication sector grew by 4.9%, contributing about 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth. Transport and logistics services increased by 4.2% after 4%, adding 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth. Construction recovered after the downturn associated with abnormally low temperatures in January–February 2026. The growth of contract works in the second quarter (plus 6.2%) made it possible to increase their volume by 2.3% in January–July.

Consumer demand remains high. Retail turnover grew by 8.1% in January–July after 7.6% in the first half of the year. A supporting factor for consumption is the growth of real disposable incomes (plus 8% in January–June), including through higher wages and transfers. Lending provides additional support. The volume of consumer loans issued grew by 32% in the second quarter after a decline of 2.9% in the first quarter.

Investment activity has recovered: in the second quarter of 2026, investments grew by 10% after a decline of 2.7% in the first quarter. For January–June 2026, growth reached 4.1%.

The unemployment rate stood at 2.1% in the second quarter of 2026, hitting a new historical low. Real wages grew by 7.7% in January–July 2026, including due to a 10.6% increase in public sector wages.

Inflation in Belarus was 4.4% year-on-year in July 2026, after 4.3% in June, remaining below the 7% ceiling parameter set for 2026. Amid slowing price growth, the list of regulated product items was reduced in July. “At the end of 2026, inflation, in our estimation, will remain below the National Bank’s ceiling parameter and will amount to about 5%,” EDB analysts forecast.

The National Bank cut its refinancing rate by 0.5 percentage points effective June 1, 2026, to 9.25% per annum, and eased regulatory requirements for loans. This also supported investment lending.